When you look at the average state poll that called cellphones, you see no sign that Trump is doing worse than in the early summer. In the average state poll in June, Biden outperformed Hillary Clinton’s margin by 8 points. The margin was 8 points since July as well. This would translate to a 10-point Biden lead nationally.
Essentially, Biden widened his advantage from May to June following the beginning of the protests after George Floyd’s killing in late May, and it’s not gotten worse for Trump since.
The national polling paints a similar picture. Biden’s margin widened at the end of May and beginning of June. Since then, Trump has held his ground.
Biden was ahead of Trump by 11 points in the average national poll that calls cell phones in June. The margin was exactly the same in July. Likewise, the average of all the other polls was an 8-point Biden advantage in June and an 8-point Biden edge in July.
Despite all of that, Trump’s approval rating among voters never dropped below 40% with voters in the average poll. Currently, Trump’s approval rating among voters is about 41% or 42%, depending on how you compute your average. His net approval rating, which went as low as below -15 points, is now closer to -12 or -13 points.
We’re not talking about a big improvement by any stretch. Rather, it’s that Trump’s position has stabilized and perhaps improved a few points.
Overall, pretty much every method agrees that Trump has, if nothing else, stopped the bleeding.
Still, the current difference between the polls at this point and the result isn’t wide enough to suggest Biden has this locked away given how much polls have moved from this point to the election historically. Yes, Biden has held a relatively steady lead, which makes him a clear favorite.
But in a year in which we are facing unprecedented circumstances, Trump is staying in the hunt.